Why Wait?

I have to give it to SAP, they’ve done a wonderful job marketing their In-Memory computing platform. Unfortunately I’m constantly wondering what the value behind marketing a brand new revolutionary product to it’s ecosystem is. If you can understand what Real-Real Time Computing (or as the SAP techies call it, In-Memory Computing) you can see truly how disruptive it is to the current SAP ecosystem. Especially to the SAP Business Intelligence sector. The way they are proposing the technology (at least how it is being marketed) is that will replace all current BI technology offers.

I’m fairly skeptical at the very loose timelines they have presented to the market. The common question from everyone has been “When do we get it?”. I’d be much more satisfied with an answer of “We don’t know, let us test it first”. So, here are my predictions:

  1. First 15 companies to actually adopt and prove the benefits of HANA “1.0″ – December 2011 (that’s approximately 17 months after its announcement from Sapphire)
  2. General Availability of HANA “1.0″ – August 2012
  3. First 500 companies to adopt and utilize HANA (1.0 and 1.5) on a daily operational basis – December 2013
  4. HANA becomes “mature” – 2016
  5. HANA technology starts to replace ERP transaction functions – 2018

To be fair, humans are naturally terrible at planning. I’m sure anyone in technology can understand that.

Watch the two videos below to get a better understanding of the marketing around HANA. The first is what was presented at Sapphire 2010 (May)

and the second just recently came out in late 2010 (December).